If you’ve been a running fan for a long time, or subscribed to Runner’s World a decade or two ago, you’re probably familiar with Team Hoyt.  Dick Hoyt pushed his profoundly physically disabled son in hundreds of races.  If you click the link, you can read their inspirational and moving story.  Sadly, Dick Hoyt passed has just passed away.

The WSJ had an article about how the Covid vaccine may be protecting the old.  I thought a couple of the plots were encouraging.  This plot showing the decline in nursing home deaths as a share of overall deaths since the beginning of the year, even while overall deaths have declined precipitously, is extremely encouraging.

The progress isn’t as obvious on this age chart, but I think it’s still encouraging.

Deaths 85+ have dropped dramatically, while deaths 75+ have remained steady by percentage, but because 85+ deaths have dropped, I believe that really shows an improvement (since you are seeing a constant percentage of a smaller pie).  The share of deaths 55-64 is increasing, which is what you’d expect to see, since that group is more vulnerable to Covid due to age and not protected by the vaccine.  Seattle only opened it’s mass vaccination sites to 65 year olds on March 1st; previously they were open to 70+, and not longer before that, only to 75+.  I’m sure there are other cities doing similarly poorly, and in some other states, vaccine distribution seems rather haphazard, to put it nicely.  In any case, a huge percentage of 65-74 year olds only got the shot in the last month.  I hope that the curve will look even better in another month.

On the negative side, the CFR is roughly the same now as it was last September, so we haven’t made any measurable progress in either detecting minor cases or healing more serious cases in the last six months.

I thought it might be “fun” to make some Covid predictions.  Many of my past Covid predictions from last year have come to pass – off the top of my head, vaccine availability date is so far right in line with my predictions.  I also predicted that masks were, in fact, useful and important to protect yourself and others.  I was right about thinking that many restrictions were silly and should be lifted, particularly those targeting outdoor activities.  Who can forget the police in Europe chasing some guy who dared jog on the beach?   I didn’t understand why people were talking about opening up too soon and suggesting that if we waited long enough the virus wouldn’t rebound.  Europe and other locations have amply proved that this was a fairy tale, wishful thinking.

I was wrong about the number of deaths.  I was wrong about cloth masks – it turns out that a triple layer, well-fitted cloth mask is nearly as effective as a surgical mask.  Though, since my pediatrician is sticking with surgical masks, I’ll do the same, or a KN95 if I find myself on a plane or similar.

Current predictions:

1.) There were 528,000 deaths in the US in the first year of the pandemic.  I predict 260,000 deaths in the US in the second year of the pandemic.  I predict we will continue to be in family with the largest countries in Europe for deaths per capita.

2.) I predict Washington state will still mandate mask wearing in some situations in March 2022.

3.) I predict Seattle area schools will not open full time in the Fall.  I would not be at all surprised if they close completely again next winter.

4.) I predict that vaccination will be annual.  This means Round 2 must start no later than December 2021.  In reality, since Covid is seasonal, we’ll need a booster for Winter 21-22, which they better have ready to roll out by early fall, like the flu shot.  I predict they’ll be behind the curve, and those of us who aren’t medical workers, old, or government workers or willing to cheat will not have the booster in time for next winter’s surge.

5.) I predict data will show that school closures in Democratic states, particularly Washington, Oregon and California, were devastating for the neediest kids, and caused a greater setback for “equity” than anything else that’s happened in the last decade, by a wide margin.

6.)  This is the third Coronavirus outbreak in 20 years.

• SARS: 2002-2004
• MERS: 2012
• Covid-19: 2019

I predict another novel Coronavirus will emerge in the next ten years.  I predict another pandemic caused by a Coronavirus will occur within the next twenty years.

7.) I predict I will still be very grumpy about all things Covid at this time next year.

What do I think should happen?

1.) I think wealthy governments should focus #1 on infrastructure to vaccinate people with existing supplies.  But #2 and nearly as important, massive funding should go to building vaccine manufacturing capability domestically so that we can roll out the second vaccine round MUCH more quickly.  All wealthy countries should do this, even small ones.  Building up vaccine manufacturing capability takes years.  Start. NOW.  Please.

2.) The vaccine acceptance process needs to be speeded up for  select vaccine developers that have done a good job.  Pfizer, J&J, Moderna.  NOT AZ, obvs.  We can’t afford to wait so many months.  The cost benefit just doesn’t make sense for someone 80+.  Vaccine should be made available on an emergency basis with minimal testing to the most vulnerable.  The emergency is just not the same for old folks as it is for younger folks, even front line workers.  Also, for vaccine boosters, priority should be by age and age only.

3.) Remove all restrictions nationwide on outdoor gatherings and activities immediately, except masking.  This isn’t going away.  We have to figure out how to live our lives with Covid, and outdoors plus masks seems pretty darn safe.  In Washington, you still cannot gather more than two households together outdoors.

4.) The US needs a dedicated agency dedicated to pandemic spying – that is, identifying pandemics in countries that are not transparent about pandemics (eg China), or incapable of identifying pandemics (eg very poor nations).

5.) The mask mandate should be lifted outdoors nationwide by executive order once 50% of American adults are fully vaccinated.

6.) Schools should be opened full time nationwide in the fall by whatever means necessary.  Unions in the West will not permit this unless they are compelled to.

6.) Study how South Korea and Japan managed Covid.  Other than being island nations, were there other things they did that enabled them to be successful in managing Covid?  (Note that NZ and Australia did not *manage* Covid – they eliminated it, at great cost in the case of Australia, and NZ is so low population that I don’t think it’s relevant.  Japan and Korea are much more interesting to me.)  Because of the language barrier, it’s much more difficult to read about what they’ve done and how it’s being managed.

What are your predictions for the next year?  What do you think should be prioritized now?

What an absolute fucking diasaster.  Masks have gotten so much attention, but how much more critical was the late test rollout?  46 days it took us longer than Thailand to produce useable tests thanks to CDC hubris an idiocy.  “Lindstrom warned superiors that dropping N3 might lead to missed cases of infection, false negatives. Villanueva told colleagues that the design was of “Nobel quality,” according to those familiar with the matter.”  The lead scientists were worried about getting an f-ing Nobel prize instead of being pragmatic.

We’ll never know what difference it might have made to get tests out in a timely manner.  By the time the US was able to test, Covid was so widespread, particularly in California, Washington, New York, and probably a couple other northeast states, that containment, a la Korea, was out of the question.  “Flattening the curve” was the only remaining option.  We’ll never know how many lives were lost, how much of our country’s reputation, how much negative economic impact was caused by this debacle.

I still believe this is epidemic-light.  There is another, worse epidemic coming.  I sincerely hope we can learn from these errors.  Will the CDC do better next time?  Let’s hope so.  Please don’t forget that the first positive COVID test in the US was *illegally* obtained in Washington against CDC guidelines.  (This is the same CDC, don’t forget, that was, while failing to produce tests, actively advising AGAINST mask-wearing.)

This is a book waiting to be written.  Honestly, there will be a cover-up, but if someone could get to the bottom of this, you could easily write a book JUST covering the testing debacle.

Honestly, I think if you work in a long-term care facility and refuse to get vaccinated, you should find another job.  The government should provide financial support and assistance to allow long-term care facilities to increase salaries to replace those to refuse to get vaccinated and support those who do and want to stay.

Nearly 72% of certified nursing assistants say they don’t want to be vaccinated, a recent survey found.

The federal long-term-care vaccination program, led by CVS Health Corp. and Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc., will begin its broad rollout in a dozen states this week, with hundreds of facilities slated for visits during the next few days. But surveys have signaled that many staffers are reluctant to get the shots, and some already have been declining them in the limited number of facilities where vaccinations have been administered.

At the nursing home at John Knox Village, in Pompano Beach, Fla., which became one of the first U.S. facilities to get the vaccine last Wednesday, about one-third of staffers participated, according to Mark Raynor, director of health-care services.

Unbelievable.  The thing is, you have to vaccinate the people working at nursing homes.  The in-and-out is just too rapid for the residents.  I read life expectancy when you enter a nursing home is only five months.  It’s just not practical to assume you can vaccinate all those people with a vaccine that requires to shots a month apart.  I mean, that should happen, too, but it’s imperative that all staffers and all visitors have the vaccine.

I have to admit I was a little squirrely about the vaccine when it first was being developed six to eight months ago, simply because I was concerned about the speed of development, but you can call me a convert.  Got an extra Pfizer or Moderna vaccine?  I’m ready!  Let me know when and where!  Not only that, I feel like that could have / should have been even more aggressive about rolling the vaccine out to the most vulnerable.  The risk / benefit equation is very different for a ninety-year-old nursing home resident than it is for a thirty-year-old nurse, so the former should have gotten approval for the vaccine sooner.

Lawyers have said that employers are generally legally allowed to mandate Covid-19 vaccines for workers, a stance reinforced last week in guidelines released by the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission. But nursing-home owners have said they don’t plan to require the vaccine. Many facilities are already facing staffing squeezes after months of pandemic challenges.

We are on vacation today.  It’s our first vacation of any kind in about a year, and of course the first since S arrived.  We’re only about 90 minutes from home except that an hour ferry wait made it 2.5 hours.  Frankly, the trip was pretty rough.  When you’re in line for the ferry, you’re inching along at a snail’s pace.  Because you’re moving, the baby has to stay in the car seat.  You can’t pull off and take a break anywhere or you’ll lose your place in line.  And S was fussing and crying and the kids were being annoying.  Yeah.  Finally, after being here a few hours and getting S to bed, I’m starting to feel a bit relaxed.  I don’t think vacationing with a baby is ever really all that relaxing.  We’re probably a couple years at least from a vacation that is in any way truly relaxing.  But still.  It’s good to get out of the house.

Today, my county moves to “Phase 2.”  One 5 person gathering per week is now permitted.  Retail stores can now reopen at limited capacity, and restaurants can open at 50% capacity.  Frankly, I have no interest in going to a retail store or a restaurant or a hair dresser, but I’m glad to see us reopening.  However, I’m mostly depressed because Covid cases and deaths are continuing to surge.  We had another record high number of cases today since early May, and deaths are up the last couple days as well.  The cause is unclear – if the contact tracers know, they aren’t saying.  Cases are apparently up in young people and Seattlites, but are not directly linked to the protests (not that I necessarily trust them to tell us if they were.)  There have been transmissions in households driving it apparently.  But why would there be any change in how Covid is getting transmitted *within* households?  That makes no sense.

I should really stay away from the news and DOH website for a few days.  Tracking this is not helping anyone.  Do I have the willpower to not go to a news website or the DOH website for the rest of our vacation?  I have literally not missed a day monitoring the DOH website since a couple weeks after this started.