I ended up feeling better yesterday, but not 100%, and I figured as long as I’m a bit under the weather, I might as well get my booster and embrace the suck.  I’d put it off until after the marathon that didn’t happen, and then I didn’t want to get it while I was still feeling quite sick.  I got Moderna because all indications are that Moderna is the most effective, though also the choice that comes with the most side effects.

Thankfully, the side effects haven’t been nearly as bad as after my second shot.  After the second shot, I spent a few hours under the covers shaking with chills and fever, and spent about 24 hours the next day in a haze of fatigue and exhaustion.  This time, I felt maybe a touch feverish last night, but nothing major, and I’m tired and don’t feel awesome today, but I am recovering from a cold.

Have you had your booster?  How were the side effects compared to the second shot?

B also had zero side effects from her second shot.  Unfortunately, since L was sick, we passed on the second shot for her and are now trying to reschedule.  And trying to get a kids’ shot in Seattle is like the Hunger Games – practically impossible.

Does anyone believe that this case is the first Omicron case in the US?  I’m guessing there are dozens, at least, already.  Furthermore, am I supposed to be encouraged because “aggressive contact tracing is underway”?  Contact tracing works, kind of, in a completely locked down society like NZ or Australia in which citizens must scan QR codes whenever they enter any kind of shop, takeout restaurant or any other location.  Ultimately, it failed in the NZ in the face of Delta.  It flat out does not work in open societies and is a waste of time and money.  And Omicron in theory is much more contagious than Delta (obviously TBD), so contact tracing will be even less effective.

It’s interesting and disturbing to me how elected leaders are behaving as if we’re just discovering Covid all over again and following roughly the same playbook.  If they shut schools again here, I swear I will lose my marbles.

The emergence of Omicron itself doesn’t worry me all that much.  I mean, I’m not thrilled, obviously.  It’s right on schedule, though, and follows the pattern of Alpha and Delta – new variants every six months which are more contagious and less effectively contained by the existing vaccine.  This is why I keep thinking and saying that what we are living right now IS the new normal.  It’s probably not going to get markedly better any time soon.

But the degree to which Washington state in its wisdom decides to screw up our lives is a very big concern.

Unfortunately, data from Europe is making it more and more clear that vaccination will not stop Covid, even if very high percentages of the population are vaccinated.

Case 1 – Ireland.  89% of Irish citizens age 12 and up are fully vaccinated.  More than 80% of those vaccines were Pfizer or Moderna, with the remainder Astra Zenica or J&J.  In other words, it’s a fairly similar profile to the US.  Their vaccination drive peaked in July, or about four months ago, so vaccine effectiveness waning would be less than in the US.  (You hear a lot about vaccine effectiveness waning at 6 months or later, but my take on the data is that the sharp dropoff starts at 4 months, or even 3.)  Ireland also still has mask mandates for adults and restrictions on large indoor gatherings, unlike most of the US.  In addition, there are vaccine mandates there to do just about anything indoors.

Despite the high rate of vaccination and other measures, Ireland’s cases per capita now exceeds the case levels the US experienced during its late summer Delta surge.  Of course, US numbers are lower because, being a large country, our numbers average out when one part of the country is surging and another isn’t.  In addition, Ireland is doing more testing than the US, and they haven’t yet seen a corresponding surge in deaths.  Deaths are starting to tick up there, so it’ll be telling to see how that goes.

Case 2 – Iceland.  Like Ireland, Iceland has a vaccination rate for ages 12+ of about 90%.  Also like Ireland, Iceland is experiencing a major Covid surge.  Iceland has a number of restrictions and Covid mitigations in place basically banning large gatherings.  With the new surge, they are introducing new rules restricting gatherings to only 50 people, limiting opening hours for restaurants, and imposing % capacity restrictions on everything from swimming pools to ski areas to gyms.

(It is worth noting that Iceland, being a small remote island, doesn’t exactly have overflow capacity for its hospitals, so it’s reasonable for them to take measures that might not make sense in the continental US.  Ireland’s relationship with the UK is . . . standoffish, and they don’t seem to be cooperating on Covid in any way, shape, or form, which no doubt forces them to also be more cautious, as a small island.)

Case 3 – King County.  We have 84% of people fully vaccinated and 89% with at least one shot.  I don’t think the Covid levels are particularly alarming around here, but the Seattle Times subjects us to regular hysterical headlines about hospitals being overwhelmed, and we have a mask mandate for indoors and larger outdoors gatherings.  In any case, we’ve certainly had an ongoing surge for the last few months that never seems to end.

Perhaps most disturbingly, between 40 and 45% of recent deaths in King County are among the vaccinated.  Now, with nearly 85% vaccinated over age 12 (72% of the total population), you’d expect a fair few deaths in the vaccinated population, but more than 40%?

Given the greater contagiousness of Delta and its greater severity, I do think the vaccine is likely making a huge difference.  Unfortunately, I think, at 70% effective against contagiousness and 90% effective (at best – probably less for the people who need it most) against hospitalization, we’re not much better off than we were at the beginning, with the wild type, before the more contagious alpha variant.  The new treatments from Pfizer and Merck and encouraging, however.  Perhaps they will tip the balance.  The 30,000 foot view for me, though, is that in addition to heart disease and cancer, which both kill about 600,000 people per year, we now have a third disease which will take a slightly lesser toll for the indefinitely future.  Taking into consideration waning immunity, vaccine mandates, future variants, and better treatments, it seems likely we’ll be looking at around 300,000 deaths per year indefinitely (at least – more this year, but vaccines weren’t widely available until spring) and potentially a year or two reduced life expectancy.  I don’t think this is the end of the world; we’ve gain a couple years of life expectancy since the 90s, and things weren’t so bad back then.  It is what it is.  I can only say that hospitals need to be increasing capacity, both in terms of beds and equipment, and staff.  Doing so will take years, and there’s no time to start the work like the present.

What would you do if you had Covid and you were at home and struggling to breathe or otherwise felt in danger?  If you were in the US, you’d either call 911 or go to the ER.  If you were in New Zealand, where 1700 people are isolating at home with Covid by government order, you’d call “Healthline” for help, and you might or might not get a response.  If you didn’t get a response, it would be a crime for you to leave your home and go to an emergency room.  So, you might just stay home and die, as three people have done in recent days.  Until very recently (the last few days), if you tested positive for Covid in NZ, you were removed from your home and essentially imprisoned in MIQ – government managed quarantine.  This includes children, though they could be accompanied by an adult.

I suppose it’s silly to fret about that, given the number of lives NZ has saved by their extreme Covid containment measures.  (NZ has 7 deaths per 1M, as compared to the US’s 2300.)  Still, it’s a bit disturbing.  The New Zealanders already had three years of life expectancy on us Americans, but I’d still rather live here.  Of course, Hawaii has the same life expectancy as NZ.  Something about islands?

Speaking of Hawaii, I think it’s interesting that Ironman has rescheduled the canceled world championships from Hawaii in October 2021 to Utah next spring.  The championships have been in Hawaii (Kona) every year since they started in 1978, but apparently Ironman feels it’s too risky to try again in Hawaii after three consecutive cancelations in fall of 2020, spring of 2021, and fall of 2021.

I am planning on running a marathon in California in December 2021, and I think there’s a fair chance it may be derailed by Covid.  It’s been fairly predictable after a lull in cases that CA was due for a surge right around the time of my race.  Hopefully the surge will hold off long enough for me to get my run done.

There are seven headlines above the fold on Seattle Times today.  FIVE of the seven are Covid related, and none of them seem particularly critical to me.  Can they please give us a break?

1.) Coronavirus daily news updates: what to know today about COVID-19

2.) He nearly died of Covid-19, then apologized to Harborview staff for not being vaccinated

3.) North Dakota lawmaker catches Covid-19, must miss his anti-vaccine ralley

4.) How a vaccine mandate divided a rural Washington hospital’s staff

5.) Colville Tribe Convalescent Center was an early adopter of Covid-19 vaccine mandate.  It appears to have paid off

Four of the five are basically shaming people who haven’t been vaccinated.  I get it.  People who don’t get vaccinated annoy me, too.  But 89% of eligible people (12+) have had one dose, and more than 83% have had two in King County.  I’m guessing the remaining 11% either aren’t reading the Seattle Times or aren’t going to be persuaded by tales of the Colville Tribe Convalescent Center.  Can they please give the rest of us a break and report on something else?  Anything else??

Also, nearly 40% of recent deaths in King County are among the vaccinated.   (Look at the chart and select “proportion” rather than “age-adjusted rate.”  For the overwhelming majority of us who are vaccinated, the more interesting question is: 1.) Why are so many vaccinated people dying?  2.) Were they boosted?  3.) If not, why not?  4.) If yes, should they have gotten Moderna instead of Pfizer?  Or gotten boosted sooner, or “stronger”?  5.) Etc.

We are currently in a “surge” that started in early July.  In states that let ‘er rip like Florida and Texas, Covid surges are extreme but briefer.  In WA, they just go on and on and on.  By the time the powers that be acknowledge that the last surge is over, we’re starting the next one.  As I may have mentioned a time or two, we’ve had a grand total of 3 weeks without a mask mandate since this thing started.  I had to fill out a survey about whether my kids will return to FISW, and my response was very much “not sure.”

Are you eligible for a booster yet?  Have you gotten it yet?  Which one did you get?

Since the CDC added mood disorders to the list of medical conditions, I am eligible for a booster.  It turns out that anxiety and depression have been shown in some studies to be comparable to obesity in terms of risk for severe illness or death from Covid.  (At least one study showed anxiety to be a stronger risk factor than obesity.  But I wouldn’t be surprised if others show something different.)  Why?  Is it the actual negative impact of anxiety on your body?  Do people with anxiety freak out and have a harder time recovering?  It may seem crazy to you (ironically) but I am more worried about my ability to handle Covid mentally than physically.  Even though I know, given my age, health and vaccination status, that Covid poses little risk to me, I am not immune to an 18 month onslaught of news media, and combined with my anxiety issues, I am going to be stressed for sure when I finally get it.  (Because I’m sure I will eventually.)

I got my period for the first time in more than two years two weeks after my second shot.  Those first two cycles were brutal.  I suspect that’s not a coincidence, given the number of people who have reported menstrual disruption.  I’ve decided to hold off on getting a booster until after my marathon for this reason which is only about a month away at this point.

When I do get a booster, I’m going to get the Moderna booster, which has been shown to be most effective in terms of preventing both Covid and severe Covid for people who got Pfizer vaccinations initially.  (It is also most effective for people with J&J or Moderna vaccinations.)

Have you booked a vaccine appointment for your kids?  If so, when?  If not, how long do you plan to wait?

Ideally, I wanted to wait 2 to 4 weeks to vaccinate my kids.  They only tested 2300 subjects in the trial which is insufficient to understand the frequency and severity of possible myocarditis or other rare side effects.  I expect there will be tens of thousands of kids getting vaccinated in the first few weeks.  Maybe hundreds of thousands.  (Tens of millions are eligible.)  I figure any severe side effects should come to light within 2 to 4 weeks.  However, people are crazy for vaccines here, and I had a chance to book an appointment for 11/14.  That’s only 10 days or so, not two weeks, but I’m afraid if I pass it up, I may have to wait a couple of months to get an appointment.  So for now, that’s the baseline plan.

I’m not worried about the kids getting sick at home from Covid.  But it would suck for them to get it while traveling.  And we will no longer have to quarantine after out of state travel after the vaccine.