Yes, a vaccine will help, but it’s likely the early vaccine may only be 50% to 70% effective, like the flu vaccine. It may also have major side effects, like the smallpox vaccine, which may make it a difficult decision to be an early adopter, despite Covid’s severity.
My own perspective is that because we likely aren’t going to be going back to “normal” anytime soon, we have to learn to live with this thing. That means deciding on an individual level what level of risk you can take. It may make living in big cities extremely undesirable for years, maybe decades. It sucks for those who are immune deficient or have asthma or who are already old. For those of us under 50, it may make sense to get this disease sooner rather than later, though I personally think it’s worth giving the vaccine effort a year.
Increasingly, leading experts believe many Americans won’t make the shift toward long-range thinking until the virus spreads more widely and affects someone they know.
“It’s like people who drive too fast. They come upon the scene of an accident, and for a little while, they drive more carefully, but soon they’re back to speeding again,” said Michael Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy.
About 50% of my coworkers, who are largely my age and healthy, had Coronavirus, confirmed by test. One described it as the worst illness he’d ever had. Another said, it “wasn’t so bad.” None of them were hospitalized. The conversation made me anxious to avoid it but not afraid of it, if that makes sense. Based on everything I’ve read, this illness is about five times worse than the flu. The flu is a bad scene, so five times worse than the flu is definitely alarming, but I don’t think it’s worth stopping life for if you are not vulnerable: not over 60, not under 1, not asthmatic or diabetic, not severely obese or suffering from other health conditions. Because S is under one, we will be very cautious at least until she turns one, or until I read something that convinces me she’s not at risk (unlikely).
The real question for me is whether it makes sense for H and I to stay in Seattle, given neither of us are working here presently. At what point to we leave this place that we love and move somewhere more rural?