Anticipated vaccination date: 0.7 years / October 2021
Washington has one of the lowest death rates. Unfortunately, that also implies we have one of the lowest infection rates, which further implies one of the lowest immunity rates. So, my prediction is that in October 2021 + 30 days for the second dose, only 55% of the population will be immune. (Probably less since lots of people won’t get the second dose and many of the people in the first group, long-term care residents, will die from other causes.) Fauci says we need 85% of people to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity, and while I don’t really believe that, unless herd immunity implies no one gets sick ever, it seems like 50% is probably not going to cut it. New York state, which, along with NJ, remains the hardest hit, probably has 30 to 40% immunity due to infection, and they’re still going strong with infections. I find it disappointing how little discussion there is in the newspapers about the likely infection rate in the hardest hit states – NY, NJ, and MA – and how that has or has not impacted ongoing infection levels, as compared to the least-affected states – VT, ME and OR (excluding HI and AK for obvious reasons). I would love to see more discussion about why New Jersey and Massachusetts were hit so much harder than Vermont. They are right next door! Why did New York do so much worse than Virginia? NY’s per capita death rate is more than three times higher than Virginia’s. Why?
Meanwhile, S Dakota has received a lot of flak for its handling of the epidemic (despite still lagging behind NY and other states for death rate), but they’ve managed to use 70% of the vaccines they’ve received and vaccinate more 5% of their population, as compared to WA, which has only used 33% of its vaccines and vaccinate 2.5%. You can read more about WA’s vaccination debacle thus far here.
I honestly didn’t mean to get on here and rant more about Covid, but I just can’t seem to help myself.
What I’ve been playing on repeat lately: