Locally, there has been a lot of hysterics about flu and other respiratory illnesses in the news. I think this is also the case nationally, though to a lesser extent. So, let’s look at the numbers. Source: CDC.
The CDC has two major sources of flu data. From the first source, we have the following plot. Note the x-axis is week number, 1 to 52, and is 1 to 2 weeks behind. (In this case, the data is from the week ending 12/3.)
Now, one data point does not a trend make, but we’re talking about a lot of data here. It’s not particularly noisy. My very strong suspicion is that we’ll see at worst a plateau next year and more likely a drop. Here’s their second source of data:
In this plot, which covers the same dates, the trend is very clear. The peak has passed. In fact, the peak was nearly a month ago – the week from 11/13 – 11/19. And yet, reading the news, you’d believe quite the opposite, that we were building to some kind of flu crescendo.
Next question, is this flu season historically bad? I’ll give you one guess. Answer: almost certainly not.
The trend line to the far left is this year. Clearly, flu season began earlier this year. Is that “worse”? I think that’s unclear. Mainly, I would argue it’s different, and not bad I think Covid has yet to peak. If hospitals are “overflowing,” you can’t blame the prevalence of flu. Levels are similar to those in two of the last three “real” flu seasons. And how do those flu seasons compare historically? 2017-2018 was on the high end, and 2019-2020 was pretty average to low.
Of course, there could be a double hump. You can see that’s happened in a few seasons. Let’s hope for the best. But so far, I see no reason for panic and hysteria beyond what the media used to drum up before Covid.
What is interesting to me is that here in WA, we actually are having a more severe flu season than usual. Why? I’m guessing it’s because this state was far more aggressive in mandating masking, closing schools, shutting down extracurriculars, and getting people to work from home, so we probably have zilch in the way of natural immunity. Of course, the graph is absurdly unhelpful since it has only one data point on it – 2019-2020. We haven’t had a normal flu season since then. It would be a much more useful chart with more than one past data point.
Of course, the giant headline splashed across the front of Seattle Times was a dire warning to mask up. With some difficulty, it’s possible to extract useful data from public health agencies, but at this point, I don’t trust a word they say.
It’s time, Washingtonians: You should resume regularly wearing a mask indoors, if you haven’t already.
The new guidance from 12 county health officers and 25 hospital executives is fueled by the region and country’s surge in viral respiratory illnesses — mainly influenza and RSV, though COVID-19 numbers are beginning to creep back up.
Please note that the reasoning for the strong guidance to mask is based on the flu and RSV. Will someone wake me up from this fucking nightmare?
The flu is expected to continue circulating for months, according to the officials’ advisory released Friday.
“As health officers and health care leaders working to improve the health of Washington residents, we recommend that everyone wear a high-quality, well-fitting mask when around others in indoor spaces to protect against both acquiring and spreading these infections to others,” according to the advisory.
Gotta love this gem:
Because emergency rooms are so packed with patients, doctors recommend instead going to an urgent care clinic if you have non-life-threatening injuries or illnesses, including coughing, wheezing, sore throat, mild dehydration or fever.
Really? So if my emergency room is not crowded, I should go there if I have a sore throat or fever?
You might say, oh, this just a public health recommendation. It’s not a mandate. Well, in Washington state for the last nearly three years, mandates have generally followed “recommendations” with a two week lag at best. I pray that is not the case this year, but I guess we’ll see. I am so sick of the mandates, and I am also sick of worrying about it. I want to live in a place where I don’t have to worry about whether I’ll be able to find a preschool I can send S to that won’t require masks. (As a side note, the awesome outdoor preschool we sent the older girls to was a casualty of Covid and doesn’t exist anymore.)
How are RSV cases in Wa? Anecdotally they seem pretty bad in DC, everyone seems sick with something in the combo of flu, RSV, covid season. I know two people with kids who have had multiple night hospital stays with RSV, (unlike covid), (scary but they will be ok), sounds particularly severe for small kids.
I suspect the hysteria over RSV is similar to that over the flu. Yes – RSV is very, very scary for young kids. It was scary when I had L in 2012. It was still scary when I had B in 2014. I’m not surprised it’s scary again this year when no one’s had a chance to develop any immunity for it for the last couple of years (meaning older kids, for whom it is not dangerous, are probably spreading it to their younger siblings. I don’t happen to know anyone with a child who’s been hospitalized for it this winter, but I do know parents of kids who were in past. I don’t think the solution is to implement permanent mask-wearing, as appears to be the intent of health “experts” in Seattle and collect another year of reduced immunity.
I don’t have data. Not sure if it exists. If it does, maybe I’ll write another entry on it.
The irony is, if Seattle hadn’t had a 26 month mask mandate, I’d be totally open to wearing a mask if there were a genuine RSV crisis. But see the notes above for my total and complete lack of trust and belief in public health. They’ve been crying wolf way, way too long.
Just to add to this Becca – they are saying we should wear masks because of flu and RSV. But my entry above shows that the flu season is early but otherwise typical so far and likely peaked two weeks ago. So why should I believe them that there’s an RSV crisis? Maybe there is, but given the lack of flu crisis, it’s hard to believe they’re being honest about RSV.
I am not sure I would describe the attitude in DC at least as hysteria. I think if I were to pick the word it would be weariness of “everyone is sick right now.” This is the first time since the pandemic started that I’ve noticed people are coming into work coughing and sniffling. It may be my particular new office culture, but I also went out to a group event last night with people coughing and sniffling. It was a “if we wait until no one is sick, we will never go out again.” I went out last night with a mother of 2 and she said there was a 10 day period between September 1 and today where all four members of the household were healthy, after covid, RSV, and flu. But I think we’ve established the attitudes in DC are different than WA. Though a couple of news sites are like “masks would really help everyone not be continuously sick with these respiratory bugs, we know that no one is going to do that.” FWIW, my house is the same, Byron is going on a 6 week stretch of covid, food poisoning, and shingles; I think I had RSV during that period but it resolved quickly.
Well, I pretty much think of VA as the promised land, so I hope it’s not “hysterical” there. In fact, I don’t think 70% of Seattle residents are remotely hysterical, but the fact that our public health authorities now think we should wear masks indoors every year is, in my opinion, hysteria. Most Seattlites are done with masking; however, a significant minority wishes that masks were mandated on the rest of us. (Probably 20–30%.)
However, I think public health people have always been over the top. The difference is that in past, few people really paid them much mind. From March 20 to May 22 their “recommendations” were law here. So the real question is whether that still holds. Someone pointed out in response to that article that they were merely making a recommendation. The problem is that nowadays, “recommendations” fill me with anxiety lest they become multimonth or multiyear mask mandates. I don’t think we’ve had a major recommendation like that not become a mandate since Covid started. So we’ll see what happens this time.
One of the most liked comments in response to the article: “It’s been an IQ test the whole time…..more intelligent decent people will keep the masks on…..
Those who are susceptible to lying demagogues and don’t give a damn about anyone else will keep refusing to wear masks or get vaccinated….”
Gotta love it.