Locally, there has been a lot of hysterics about flu and other respiratory illnesses in the news.  I think this is also the case nationally, though to a lesser extent.  So, let’s look at the numbers.  Source: CDC.

The CDC has two major sources of flu data.  From the first source, we have the following plot.  Note the x-axis is week number, 1 to 52, and is 1 to 2 weeks behind.  (In this case, the data is from the week ending 12/3.)

Now, one data point does not a trend make, but we’re talking about a lot of data here.  It’s not particularly noisy.  My very strong suspicion is that we’ll see at worst a plateau next year and more likely a drop.  Here’s their second source of data:

In this plot, which covers the same dates, the trend is very clear.  The peak has passed.  In fact, the peak was nearly a month ago – the week from 11/13 – 11/19.  And yet, reading the news, you’d believe quite the opposite, that we were building to some kind of flu crescendo.

Next question, is this flu season historically bad?  I’ll give you one guess.  Answer: almost certainly not.

The trend line to the far left is this year.  Clearly, flu season began earlier this year.  Is that “worse”?  I think that’s unclear.  Mainly, I would argue it’s different, and not bad I think Covid has yet to peak.  If hospitals are “overflowing,” you can’t blame the prevalence of flu.  Levels are similar to those in two of the last three “real” flu seasons.  And how do those flu seasons compare historically?  2017-2018 was on the high end, and 2019-2020 was pretty average to low.

Of course, there could be a double hump.  You can see that’s happened in a few seasons.  Let’s hope for the best.  But so far, I see no reason for panic and hysteria beyond what the media used to drum up before Covid.

What is interesting to me is that here in WA, we actually are having a more severe flu season than usual.  Why?  I’m guessing it’s because this state was far more aggressive in mandating masking, closing schools, shutting down extracurriculars, and getting people to work from home, so we probably have zilch in the way of natural immunity.  Of course, the graph is absurdly unhelpful since it has only one data point on it – 2019-2020.  We haven’t had a normal flu season since then.  It would be a much more useful chart with more than one past data point.

Of course, the giant headline splashed across the front of Seattle Times was a dire warning to mask up.  With some difficulty, it’s possible to extract useful data from public health agencies, but at this point, I don’t trust a word they say.

It’s time, Washingtonians: You should resume regularly wearing a mask indoors, if you haven’t already.

The new guidance from 12 county health officers and 25 hospital executives is fueled by the region and country’s surge in viral respiratory illnesses — mainly influenza and RSV, though COVID-19 numbers are beginning to creep back up.

Please note that the reasoning for the strong guidance to mask is based on the flu and RSV.  Will someone wake me up from this fucking nightmare?

The flu is expected to continue circulating for months, according to the officials’ advisory released Friday.

“As health officers and health care leaders working to improve the health of Washington residents, we recommend that everyone wear a high-quality, well-fitting mask when around others in indoor spaces to protect against both acquiring and spreading these infections to others,” according to the advisory.

Gotta love this gem:

Because emergency rooms are so packed with patients, doctors recommend instead going to an urgent care clinic if you have non-life-threatening injuries or illnesses, including coughing, wheezing, sore throat, mild dehydration or fever.

Really?  So if my emergency room is not crowded, I should go there if I have a sore throat or fever?

You might say, oh, this just a public health recommendation.  It’s not a mandate.  Well, in Washington state for the last nearly three years, mandates have generally followed “recommendations” with a two week lag at best.  I pray that is not the case this year, but I guess we’ll see.  I am so sick of the mandates, and I am also sick of worrying about it.  I want to live in a place where I don’t have to worry about whether I’ll be able to find a preschool I can send S to that won’t require masks.  (As a side note, the awesome outdoor preschool we sent the older girls to was a casualty of Covid and doesn’t exist anymore.)