the path to herd immunity

The ascension of Mississippi to the top of the deaths per capita table is . . . interesting.  (They’re still only edging NJ by 3%.)  Until recently, it didn’t matter how self-righteous the Covid lockdowners were, Covid stubbornly refused to behave to the desired political message.  TX had only 10% more deaths than CA  this spring right before vaccines became widely available.  In other words, if draconian CA-style restrictions were implemented nationwide, instead of TX-style moderation, we’d have expected to save about 50,000 lives last year – pretty typical for an average flu season.  Limiting restaurants to 50% capacity, blocking large gatherings, shutting churches, and mandating masks is just not that effective.  Australia style DONOTLEAVEYOURHOUSEFORANYREASON rules were quite effective (pre-Delta), but the US has never tried not, not anywhere, not ever.  Not even in the first few weeks.

But the vaccine changes everything.  Vaccines, unlike masks and closing a few tables in restaurants, really work.  Half the country is achieving immunity through infection, which the CDC has told us results in 10 times the deaths along the way.  I believe it.   Only 42% of Mississippians are fully vaccinated.  Same with Alabama.  TX isn’t much better at 50%.  By contrast, NY is at 63%, CA at 58%, and WA at 60%.  I imagine having an extra 20% of people vaccinated will make quite a big difference.  Though I’m guessing we’re all getting to herd immunity eventually one way or another.  We know which is the bloodier route.  Which is the fast route?