I think it’s always helpful to look at the data when it comes to Covid. Reading the media coverage is highly misleading. In any case, to me, the numbers look good. Note that the above is a log plot.
- Numbers appear to be plateauing in India. I think it’s likely they’ll begin to dip soon.
- Numbers is Israel have now fallen below South Korea. That is very good news for vaccine efficacy.
- Numbers in the UK also continue to drop. I hope we will see a sharper drop-off there soon.
Vaccines:
In terms of people vaccinated, Israel’s success has come with about 65% of people vaccinated. In the US, we are sitting at 45%. I am hopeful that if we can push up to 60% or so, we’ll start seeing huge drops, just like Israel has. I am personally strongly in favor of dispensing $100 checks to young people who get vaccinated, as West Virginia has done. I also hope that being able to just drive to your local pharmacy without an appointment will help. In Washington, we are at 47% vaccinated, and at current rates, should achieve 60% by the end of May and 70% by the end of June. Hopefully that will still happen despite dropping demand.
Given dropping demand, I don’t understand why we are still vaccinating people with the J&J vaccine. It’s just so ineffective compared to Pfizer and Moderna. I think in limited cases the storage requirements might make J&J the preferred choice, but those cases are truly limited. You’re almost certainly better off with one Pfizer dose than one J&J dose.