I thought it might be “fun” to make some Covid predictions.  Many of my past Covid predictions from last year have come to pass – off the top of my head, vaccine availability date is so far right in line with my predictions.  I also predicted that masks were, in fact, useful and important to protect yourself and others.  I was right about thinking that many restrictions were silly and should be lifted, particularly those targeting outdoor activities.  Who can forget the police in Europe chasing some guy who dared jog on the beach?   I didn’t understand why people were talking about opening up too soon and suggesting that if we waited long enough the virus wouldn’t rebound.  Europe and other locations have amply proved that this was a fairy tale, wishful thinking.

I was wrong about the number of deaths.  I was wrong about cloth masks – it turns out that a triple layer, well-fitted cloth mask is nearly as effective as a surgical mask.  Though, since my pediatrician is sticking with surgical masks, I’ll do the same, or a KN95 if I find myself on a plane or similar.

Current predictions:

1.) There were 528,000 deaths in the US in the first year of the pandemic.  I predict 260,000 deaths in the US in the second year of the pandemic.  I predict we will continue to be in family with the largest countries in Europe for deaths per capita.

2.) I predict Washington state will still mandate mask wearing in some situations in March 2022.

3.) I predict Seattle area schools will not open full time in the Fall.  I would not be at all surprised if they close completely again next winter.

4.) I predict that vaccination will be annual.  This means Round 2 must start no later than December 2021.  In reality, since Covid is seasonal, we’ll need a booster for Winter 21-22, which they better have ready to roll out by early fall, like the flu shot.  I predict they’ll be behind the curve, and those of us who aren’t medical workers, old, or government workers or willing to cheat will not have the booster in time for next winter’s surge.

5.) I predict data will show that school closures in Democratic states, particularly Washington, Oregon and California, were devastating for the neediest kids, and caused a greater setback for “equity” than anything else that’s happened in the last decade, by a wide margin.

6.)  This is the third Coronavirus outbreak in 20 years.

• SARS: 2002-2004
• MERS: 2012
• Covid-19: 2019

I predict another novel Coronavirus will emerge in the next ten years.  I predict another pandemic caused by a Coronavirus will occur within the next twenty years.

7.) I predict I will still be very grumpy about all things Covid at this time next year.

What do I think should happen?

1.) I think wealthy governments should focus #1 on infrastructure to vaccinate people with existing supplies.  But #2 and nearly as important, massive funding should go to building vaccine manufacturing capability domestically so that we can roll out the second vaccine round MUCH more quickly.  All wealthy countries should do this, even small ones.  Building up vaccine manufacturing capability takes years.  Start. NOW.  Please.

2.) The vaccine acceptance process needs to be speeded up for  select vaccine developers that have done a good job.  Pfizer, J&J, Moderna.  NOT AZ, obvs.  We can’t afford to wait so many months.  The cost benefit just doesn’t make sense for someone 80+.  Vaccine should be made available on an emergency basis with minimal testing to the most vulnerable.  The emergency is just not the same for old folks as it is for younger folks, even front line workers.  Also, for vaccine boosters, priority should be by age and age only.

3.) Remove all restrictions nationwide on outdoor gatherings and activities immediately, except masking.  This isn’t going away.  We have to figure out how to live our lives with Covid, and outdoors plus masks seems pretty darn safe.  In Washington, you still cannot gather more than two households together outdoors.

4.) The US needs a dedicated agency dedicated to pandemic spying – that is, identifying pandemics in countries that are not transparent about pandemics (eg China), or incapable of identifying pandemics (eg very poor nations).

5.) The mask mandate should be lifted outdoors nationwide by executive order once 50% of American adults are fully vaccinated.

6.) Schools should be opened full time nationwide in the fall by whatever means necessary.  Unions in the West will not permit this unless they are compelled to.

6.) Study how South Korea and Japan managed Covid.  Other than being island nations, were there other things they did that enabled them to be successful in managing Covid?  (Note that NZ and Australia did not *manage* Covid – they eliminated it, at great cost in the case of Australia, and NZ is so low population that I don’t think it’s relevant.  Japan and Korea are much more interesting to me.)  Because of the language barrier, it’s much more difficult to read about what they’ve done and how it’s being managed.

What are your predictions for the next year?  What do you think should be prioritized now?