Daily Archives: February 12, 2021

vaccination

Anticipated vaccination date: July

(50% vaccinated with one dose in WA)

I read an article today about how the failure to distribute vaccines to poor countries is not only a moral failure but also a threat to the rest of the world as new variants emerge.

(The biggest vaccine hoarder is Canada by a wide margin, by the way.  The US, in terms of doses per capita, is in family with European countries.)

Let’s address the moral failure first.  When we talk about poor countries, who are we talking about?  Not places like India, since they have lots of vaccine.  Presumably we’re talking about places like Uganda. (I chose Uganda at random by googling.)

First, is it really a moral failure to not provide Uganda with vaccine?  Here are some facts about Uganda:

  • Median age – 15
  • 3.3x the birth rate of the US
  • 2.38% of population is over 65 (vs 17% in the US)
  • Infant mortality rate 6 times that of the US
  • Maternal mortality rate 20 times higher than that of the US
  • 0.17 physicians per 1000 population (15x fewer than the US)
  • 6% of adults have HIV
  • 10% of children under 5 are underweight
  • 30% of women and 17% of men are illiterate
  • Leading causes of death:
    • Neonatal disorders
    • HIV/AIDS
    • Malaria
    • Lower respiratory infections
    • Tuberculosis

Honestly, you cannot tell me that Covid is a significant problem in Uganda.  I imagine Uganda, like almost all desperately impoverished countries, has a small class of rich people who are at risk, but I would be shocked if Covid is even in the top five causes of death.  In the US, Covid comes in at #3 behind cancer and heart disease, and cancer and heart disease aren’t even in the top 5 in Uganda.  The reasons why cancer and heart disease are not Uganda’s biggest problems – a younger population – are exactly the same reason why Covid isn’t their biggest problem.  Honestly, if I were in charge in Uganda, I’d ignore it completely and focus on prenatal care.  Yes, we should try to get vaccine to poorer countries.  But – vaccine, just like in the US, SHOULD go to those 65 and older first.  And poor countries don’t have many people over 65.

I read a ridiculous article about how Uganda’s “tough” approach to Covid had paid off (as of August).  First of all, I don’t believe that their tough approach really paid off.  Barring a truly draconian lockdown which is not possible in the developing world, it is not possible to contain Covid.  Furthermore, read the following:

But the nation of 42 million people has recorded just over 1,200 cases and five deaths since March, a strikingly low total for such a large country.

As the number of cases in Africa approaches one million, Uganda’s experience shows what can be accomplished when a government with a firm grip on power acts quickly and enforces a strict lockdown. But its success came at a cost, critics say.

Jobs were lost, and economic growth is set to plunge to as low as 0.4% in 2020, from 5.6% last year, according to the World Bank.

Some pregnant women died in labour, unable to reach hospitals because of travel restrictions. Security forces – criticised by rights groups for abuses – beat and arrested some rule-breakers.

Right.  That made a ton of sense.

However, the emergence of variants is a serious problem.  The thing is, however, getting vaccines is only one small part in the equation, as has been demonstrated in the US and Europe.  Distributing them is another.  Consider the measles.  Measles is still rampant around the world.  In Africa as a whole, only 73% of children are vaccinated against the measles (one dose, when two are recommended), and that’s been achieved only with intense effort.  There are several countries worldwide that have a measles vaccination rate under 50%.  ANNUAL Covid vaccination will take decades to achieve, if it is achievable at all.

The article is very correct that this is a problem due to emerging variants.  I’m not sure what we’re supposed to do about that.  It’s bad news for these poor countries that may find themselves more isolated due to the virus variants they produce.  And of course also bad news for the rest of us who will continue to see our lives disrupted by these variants.